Bad Beats/Lucky wins
As sports bettors, we all seem to remember our “rough runs” while taking our “lucky wins” for granted. One must remember that for every person who takes a bad hit, someone else is celebrating a lucky victory. You often hear a bettor talk about having the “right side” or the “wrong side” of a game. After more than two decades in this business, I have resigned myself to the proposition that there are no right or wrong sides, only winning and losing sides. Here are some of the “bad shots and lucky wins” from the past weekend.
College weekend kicked off Thursday with Oregon State at Boise State. The Beavers opened the game with a long TD drive and after Boise State went three and out on the team’s first possession, OSU returned the punt for TDs. Up 14-0 and getting between 7 1/2 and nine points, the Beavers NEVER scored again. The ‘Over’ players suffered a heavy loss as the total was around 59 or 60 and the halftime score was 28-14 Boise. Boise made it 42-14 with nearly 12 minutes remaining in the game and one more TD would make it game over. With no pressure on them, the Beavers easily drove to the Boise 20-yard line, but an offensive holding call sent them back and they were ultimately stopped on tries at the 18-yard line. No one scored after that.
On Friday night, Pittsburgh was in Cincinnati to take on the Bearcats. Pitt closed out a 7 1/2 point favorite and the total closed out at 44. Pitt led just 7-0 at the half, making the ‘under’ look pretty safe. Pitt was up 23-0 halfway through the third and led 26-7 after a FG with only about 7 1/2 minutes remaining in the game. However, things changed quickly. The Bearcats, whose only TD to that point had been after recovering a missed punt at the Pitt 17, went 79 yards for a score and added a two-point conversion to make it 26-15. Pitt then fumbled the ball quickly and Cincy faced a fourth and one around the Pitt 10. The Bearcats decided to go for it and were stopped with about 3 1/2 minutes remaining. Pitt’s bettors looked safe, as did the lower bettors. However, Pitt was unable to time out and kicked out, leaving Cincy time for only one play. Pitt intercepted Cincy’s pass and returned it for a TD, leaving bettors shaking their heads, as the final reading was 33-15.
Saturday’s games provided a number of beauties. Last year at Clemson, BC beat the Tigers 16-13 in overtime, in the school’s first ACC road game. Saturday’s game was expected to be close as BC started the small favorite, but concerns over quarterback Ryan’s health caused Clemson to become the small favorite for Saturday. Clemson jumped out to a 10-0 lead and led 17-10 at the half. However, BC returned the opening KO of the second half for a TD and the game remained tied at 17 going into the fourth quarter. Clemson went up 24-17 but BC tied it with 4:59 remaining.
In OT, BC was held to one FG on their first possession and after a 22-yard completion, the Tigers had first and goal on all three. Lined up in a full house backfield, Clem ran a sweep(?), losing four yards! BC then sacked the Clemson QB on second down and the Tigers had to settle for an FG. In the second overtime, Clemson received the ball first and overcame a 2 and 26 situation from the 41-yard line with back-to-back 20-yard completions. The Tigers scored but saw the extra point blocked! BC then won the game in their possession by scoring and converting the extra point (34-33).
Fresno State has made a habit of beating BCS schools under Pat Hill, but the Bulldogs have suffered some heartbreaking losses to Oregon over the years. Last Saturday was no different. Midway through the third quarter, Fresno State tied the game at 17-1. Oregon responded with a long drive, but was forced to go for an FG attempt. FSU blocked the try, but instead of allowing the ball to roll dead, FSU tried to get the ball back. He sped off and Oregon recovered at the FSU 5-yard line. The Ducks scored to go up 24-17.
The Bulldogs tied the game on a 74-yard TD drive with just under 11 minutes to go. However, the Ducks mounted one last drive and faced a third-and-goal at FSU’s 4-yard line with just five minutes to go. On third down, the Ducks were stopped and set up for the go-ahead FG. Oregon was a 3 or 3 1/2 point pick, so a 27-24 final would either land the game “on the number,” or give the FSU bettors a half-point win. Oregon faked FG’s try (remember FSU had blocked the last try) and kicker Paul Martinez sprang upfield for a four-yard touchdown run, scoring the first touchdown of his eight-year football career. The 31-24 final also gave Oregon the ATS victory.
A quick look at Va Tech’s 35-10 win over North Carolina might give the impression that the Hokies dominated the Tar Heels. Not so. NC’s first three drives made it to the inside of the Va Tech 35, but the Tar Heels were left with just three points. The last of those three drives resulted in an interception that was returned to the NC one-yard line, setting up Va Tech’s first TD. Va Tech’s second TD came after a blocked punt was recovered at NC! ! Leading 21-3 in the third quarter (Tech closed as a 13-point favorite), the Hokies added a 69-yard interception TD and their other fourth quarter TD was also set up by an interception.
Let’s not forget the NFL. Sunday night’s game featured Peyton vs. Eli and as the Giants outscored the Colts 186-55 for the game and Eli stopped Peyton, the Colts got the win and the coverage. Indy led 16-7 at the half (the Colts were three-point favorites) but the Giants pulled within 16-14 in the third quarter. An Eli fumble near midfield late in the third quarter led to an Indy TD early on the fourth goal. The Giants closed 23-21 with about eight minutes to go. NY got the ball back deep in their own territory when it all went wrong for Giant punters.
Eli completed a third-and-two pass for about 20 yards (seeming to get out of harm’s way) but NY was called for offensive pass interference (phantom called!). Naturally, on the next play, Eli’s pass was intercepted. The Colts faced a third and two of their own with about 1:30 left in the game. If the Colts could convert, they would run out of time for a two-point win, giving the Giants the cover. However, Indy didn’t convert and Vinatieri’s 33-yard FG (I thought he had a broken foot!) gave Indy the 26-21 win and coverage!
Arizona started at home for the first time since 1988 and was rewarded with a game against the 49ers (13-35 the past three seasons). The Cardinals opened as 7 1/2-point favorites, but bet as high as 9 1/2 or even 10. The 49ers scored first, but Arizona quickly took a 21-7 lead. A 49er FG with 8:52 remaining in the game cut Arizona’s lead to 31-24, but a 13-play Arizona drive led to an FG with just under two minutes remaining, restoring that 10-point lead. SF moved quickly 44 yards and on FIRST DOWN, he kicked the ‘covering’ FG from 44 yards out. SF then recovered the onside kick but it went nowhere. However, for Cardinal bettors, the damage had already been done.
Minor players walked 12 of 16 in Week 1 (games averaged just 34.6 PPG) but should have been 14-2! The Jets/Titans game opened 37 and closed 35 1/2. The Jets were leading 16-0 through 4th and the Titans were getting nothing. The Titans then put together a nine-play, 80-yard touchdown drive and converted on the two-point attempt. With just over six minutes remaining, Pennington was hit and fumbled on a 3rd-and-10 play from the NY Jets 11-yard line. Tennessee rallied at one. The Titans scored and doubled again (you can’t make that up!). Now, the players were sweating and praying that the game would be decided by an FG. No such luck, as Pennington drove the Jets on a seven-play, 57-yard touchdown drive, giving the Jets a 23-16 victory and beating the oddsmakers in a rare Week 1 win. .
In the Dallas/Jacksonville game (37 total), the Cowboys took a 10-0 lead in the first quarter and the Jags came back even by beating the Cowboys 10-0 in the second. No one scored in the third and the minor players still looked safe with the Jags leading 17-10 late in the fourth. It still didn’t look too bad when Jacksonville made it 24-10, as there were just over three minutes remaining and Dallas hadn’t scored since the first quarter. However, that TO is a “money player” and caught a 21. Two-yard touchdown pass from Bledsoe, which capped a 79-yard drive that took just 1:19.
Join me next Wednesday for another Bad Beats/Lucky Wins addition, Friday for Ness Notes, and every Monday for my latest Top-10 Heisman Trophy.