If a dog has the fastest time of all the dogs in a race, should you bet on that dog? What if a dog has the highest class in a breed or has the highest winning percentage? What if he’s out of the kennel that’s at the top of the leaderboard as of this week? What if he’s in the best post position or he’s the fastest breaker in the race? And if he has all these things going for him, would you bet on it then?
Of course you would. Unfortunately, so would everyone else on the track and the odds would be so low that you would have to pay the money back if you won. Or almost, anyway. What I mean is that most dogs have something going for them, but very few have everything going for them. This is where good handicapping, research, time and effort come into play.
It is the handicappers who are willing to go beyond the handicap based on a single factor who are most successful. It is impossible to know if a dog is going to win, judging only by how fast he brakes, how fast he runs or how many races he has won in the past. There are seven other dogs in that race who have their mind set on catching the lure and will do whatever it takes to beat the other dogs.
This is the reason why speed limiting does not work. That’s why even my favorite stratagem, playing point moves, doesn’t work unless you make a little handicap along with it. Just because a dog has a good reason to win, doesn’t mean he’s going to win. It just means that he has an advantage over dogs that don’t get a good win or don’t fall behind in class or do any of the other things that give a dog a reason to be a contender.
Anything that gives a dog that extra “oomph” is good, but by itself it’s not enough. Unfortunately, the crowd seems to be zeroing in on these one-trick wonders and betting them off. But maybe that’s not so unfortunate if you’re smart enough to figure out what’s going on and find another dog who has more than one thing going for him.
Look below the surface of the breeds where a dog is the big favorite because of one thing that sets him apart from the other dogs. Look for dogs that have several factors in their favor and find one or two to play to win or in a quinela or trifecta box. Don’t rely on dogs who only have speed, post position, or something else going for them. Dogs, like people, need as many things going for them as possible to win.