The Pareto probability distribution describes book sales along with a wide variety of observable phenomena. Ask any librarian: a small number of books account for the majority of items in circulation, while the vast majority of volumes remain on the shelves. So while the latest Grisham or King may be reviewed, you’re bound to find a Steven Vincent Benet or Anthony Burgess back in the stacks.
Zanybooks.com, my publisher, has 26 titles for sale on Kindle. Of 57 sales in the last nine months, one title represented 12, and half of the titles were left without a buyer. (Ay, this last group includes all the novels we’ve ever published using my name as the author. Our best seller is Paula Morgan’s Side Out for Murder.)
Until now, our sales seem to have been completely random. Our hope is that as the number of buyers increases, word will get out about our titles and our sales will begin to accelerate much like a wildfire, epidemic, or welfare case.
In the 1950s, the US federal government introduced a program designed to provide financial assistance to families with dependent children. Each of the 50 states established its own independent program to distribute the money. In state after state, the following three phenomena occurred: First, applications for welfare were filed at a more or less constant rate. As welfare recipients told their friends and neighbors about the program, the number of applications began to increase at an ever-increasing rate. Eventually, recipient organizations emerged. They started active recruitment programs among those eligible for welfare and the number of applications jumped once again. Among epidemiologists, these three stages are known as zero-order, first-order, and second-order contagion.
Most first-time authors have a similar experience, whether they self-publish or are in the hands of a major publisher. First, copies are sold more or less randomly. If the book finds its way into the hands of someone who likes it and is talkative about their tastes, sales will start to accelerate. Unfortunately, only 1 in 500 Amazon readers are likely to write a review, so a professional reviewer’s selection of the book is in high demand. With one or two positive reviews, sales will accelerate even more. The real excitement will come only when publishers start asking why they haven’t gotten a book review from X yet or Oprah drops down from the skies to endorse it.
Unfortunately (this is my third “ouch” and I’m sorry), newspapers have started to drastically reduce the number of books they review. Many have removed their review section entirely. The online reviewer is crucial to the success or failure of a book.