Note on methodology
The methodology used used the results obtained from both Google Trends and the Google AdWords Keyword Tool to estimate the number of Google searches over time. Although the current analysis is limited to the market for women’s bridal headwear, clearly the methodology could be applied to other sectors of the industry and provide useful data on demand trends.
There are a number of caveats regarding how closely Google searches correlate with demand and different browsing/buying behaviors in different market segments. However, this methodology could provide a useful starting point for further market-specific research.
The results
Surprisingly, the story seems to start in earnest during the first few months of 2008. In the previous 4 years, searches for ‘Headpieces’ and ‘Wedding Hats’ had been few and far between, with a small number of spikes, for example , April 2005 for ‘Wedding Hats’. This could reflect a real phenomenon, the development of reporting strategies at Google, or a combination of both. In any case, the current analysis can be more usefully restricted to 2008 to March 2012.
In the most recent 4 years, the number of searches for ‘Headpieces’ far exceeded that of ‘Wedding Hats’. This trend is quite clear, as ‘Fascinators’ typically receives three to four times as many searches. This strongly suggests a greater general demand for ‘Fascinators’, which is consistent with the author’s experience (admittedly anecdotal evidence).
Search activity for both terms appears to have a seasonal cycle, with a steep decline during the winter months. Although in recent times this dip has decreased in depth, indicating a more consistent demand throughout the year. Where the peak in demand typically occurs in mid-June for ‘Headgear’ searches (around the time of Royal Ascot week), it’s less easy to spot such a peak in the flatter distribution for ‘Wedding Hats’ searches. ‘.
The most striking feature of the distribution occurs during April 2011; the month of the Royal Wedding. The buildup and television coverage of Prince William’s marriage to Kate Middleton may have caused a substantial increase in Google searches for ladies’ wedding headpieces during April 2011. The increase is clearest for searches for ‘Wedding Hats’ , where the weekly estimate exceeded 1 million searches; a figure that exceeded the previous peak by more than 1,000%. Searches for ‘Fascinators’ show a more modest spike, with fewer than 400,000 estimated searches and roughly 250% of their previous high.
In conclusion, it seems that headpieces are always the favorite form of wedding headpieces for ladies. The notable exception was around the time of the royal wedding, when searches for ‘Wedding Hats’ dwarfed those for ‘Headpieces’ for a short time. However, the impact of the Royal Wedding has been short-lived, and the intervening months have seen a continuation of the historical trend. Therefore, it seems likely that the popularity of the headdress will continue in 2012/13.